Economic Briefing – Yorkshire Building Society

Chamber members received the very latest economic forecasting from a most reliable source recently.

Yorkshire Building Society’s head economist spoke at a joint Bradford Professionals’ Network/Property Forum event at this now annual event.  Andrew McPhillips, who is soon to take up a similar role with the newly-created Northern Powerhouse Partnership, predicted that interest rates could begin to rise as soon as November.  Similar predictions are also being made by other observers, regionally and nationally.

The change is being predicted now due to recent shifts in the meetings of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.  At the most recent meeting, two of the nine members voted for a rise.

Key aspects of Andrew’s presentation, which can be downloaded below, included the following:

  • Sterling is down 14% since the EU Referendum
  • Unemployment continues to fall, but wage growth is low – the relationship between unemployment, inflation and wages appears to have fundamentally changed
  • Consumer spending continues, even for non-essential items, despite the fall in real wages
  • MPC rhetoric now stronger than in recent years – yet the Bank’s own summary does not acknowledge inflationary pressures
  • London housing market has slowed dramatically – but rest of the country remains resilient
  • Yorkshire economic output reached a two-year high in the summer – well-above the UK average.

Download Andrew’s presentation here.

This event was sponsored by Yorkshire Building Society.