The Chamber’s Quarterly Economic Survey monitors economic trends and takes the business temperature, accurately and comprehensively, in a range of areas relevant to our members across West & North Yorkshire. The quarterly report is read by, and relied upon by policy makers across our region.
A promising post-election world (published Wed 3 August 2017)
DOMESTIC SALES AND ORDERS – The service sector reported growth in both sales and orders following four consecutive quarters of slowing growth. The sales balance rose by 11 points, to +29; the orders balance is up by six points, to +19. Manufacturers revealed a slowing in the pace of growth in domestic sales over the last quarter.
EXPORT SALES AND ORDERS – The service sales net balance rose by five points, to 25, its highest level since Q3 2015 and its third consecutive quarter of growth. Forward orders lifted by 12 points, to 20. In manufacturing, the sales balance fell by ten points, to +20; orders dropped 11 points to +17.
EMPLOYMENT – Employment growth remains strong across the region with net balances for both service and manufacturing showing a long-term upwards trajectory. The service sector balance for next quarter employment expectations is up by five points, to +25. Manufacturing, that figure slipped by two points, to +21, although still close to its 12 month peak.
INVESTMENT – The tightening up in manufacturing sales has not affected investment plans – where capital net balance rose to its highest level since Q1 15. Training investment also increased, back to its long term average. The service sector continues to hold on to cash with only a slight growth in capital investment and just below its 5 year average. Training investment also slowed in the last quarter.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE – Manufacturers expectations of increasing turnover fell by ten points to +41 in the last quarter and similarly profitability net balance slipped by five points to +23. Both are close to their four year low points as uncertainty remains a critical factor. Manufacturing is now less confident of increasing turnover and profits. This is in part down to rising up-front costs and the inability of many companies to pass on costs. In contrast the service sector reports improvements in net balance up six points (to +54) and eight points (to +39) for turnover and profitability respectively.
The full report is available here.
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Previous reports available below